Skip to main content

The Mandibles: A Family, 2029–2047 by Lionel Shriver

A disturbing and sobering book about a hyperinflation in the USA, and the effects it has on an extended family. I consider this book a necessary read right now, especially now, as some of what this book foretells seems increasingly likely to happen--although hopefully to a much lesser degree.  

A few themes really stood out to me: 
1) On how some people are NGMI and there's nothing you can do to help them, even if you literally tell them exactly what will happen. They will reject it, and worse: they'll reject you for telling them. Hence the awful yet true quote from Thomas Sowell: "People will forgive you for being wrong, but they will never forgive you for being right—especially if events prove you right while proving them wrong."

2) On how people waste enormous amounts of energy arguing about who's right, or trying to "be" right about some unexpected problem, rather than dealing with the actual problem. And then, once something unexpected has happened, people will burn tremendous emotional energy to show how "unsurprised" they were by this clearly, obviously unexpected thing. This is fascinating from an ego standpoint, because if they were really being truthful with themselves, they'd openly admit that what happened actually surprised the absolute shit out of them. And of course in some people, this ego-protection device goes into hyperdrive: their brains resolve experiences like this by claiming that they predicted it all along. Nassim Taleb coined the word "postdicting" to describe this hilariously prevalent phenomenon among business and political pundits whose incomes depend on them appearing both unsurprised and right all the time. 

3) Notable also was the fact that those characters who wasted all their energy trying to appear "right" or "unsurprised" were usually the softest and least adaptable to both the hyperinflationary era and the post-hyperinflation era that followed. Their egos, however, were nicely protected.

Finally, I credit the author for creating a subtle, well-done disturbing ambiance: a blanket of tension and fear that envelops everything, reader included, in the face of all of the economic and social disruption that accompanies a severe inflation. It's a fear not just of economic uncertainty, but also a fear of the truth: reality is changing and the things you thought were true (that your savings would hold value, that the economy would function, that the society built around these things would remain stable) are no longer true, and the ramifications are too awful to think about. Of course, if you fear the ramifications of a truth, you will always be at least one large step away from accepting and dealing with that truth. Thus the author indirectly offers readers yet another truth: do not fear. Do what you can, do the best you can, but do not be fearful. That fear clouds your judgment, slows you down, and it will kill you.

They say if you see a trend one year ahead of everyone else you become rich--but if you see a trend ten years ahead of everybody else you go insane. I wonder about this book and how predictive it is, and I can't tell if getting ready for it will make me insane, rich, both... or neither. 
[Links will take you to my reviews of each of these books]

Note to Self: Buy more Bitcoin.

More Posts

The Prophet of Edan by Philip Chase [The Edan Trilogy #2]

We all have our part to play and our duty to perform. This is a beautiful novel about performing your duty with honor, even in the face of almost certain failure. Author Philip Chase has an unusual gift for telling a compelling story, and The Prophet of Edan works on two levels: on the individual level, with characters we care about and root for, and on the grand, civilizational level, where entire nations  hurl themselves at each other in a desperate war of survival. And the geopolitical dramas in Philip's world of Eormenlond are downright Kissingerian --with betrayal, realpolitik and honor, all in equal measure. Now, any story with a large cast and a lot of moving parts presents the author with a structural challenge: how do you help the reader keep everybody and everything straight, but yet do it in a way that's organic to the story? After all, this is the second part of a trilogy,  and a lot happened in Book I . So I'll share an example here of what this author does,...

Godel, Escher, Bach by Douglas Hofstadter

A wonderful, beautiful work. Ask me about it, and I'll start nattering at you about sphex wasps, fugues, isomorphisms and "jumping out of the system." And my voice will trail off and you'll see me get a faraway look in my eyes. It's actually quite difficult to describe what this book is about--at least, impossible to describe in a few short sentences. [1] But there are so many ways to read Godel, Escher, Bach , and such a wide range of ideas and insights one can get out of it, that it becomes a different book for every reader. And let me confess, if you haven't read GEB  yet, I am jealous of you. [A quick  affiliate link to Amazon  for those readers who would like to support my work here: if you purchase your Amazon products via any affiliate link from this site, or from my sister site  Casual Kitchen , I will receive a small affiliate commission at no extra cost to you. Thank you!] First of all this book can be understood on many levels. You can read it a...

The Investor's Manifesto by William J. Bernstein

In just under 200 pages, The Investor's Manifesto gives you everything you need to manage your investments: * A historically grounded discussion of the tradeoffs between risk and return, * How to design an investment portfolio using index funds, including advice on withdrawal rates and how (and how often) to rebalance, * A good discussion of human psychological biases (the author uses the wonderful phrase "investing psychopathology" to describe this topic), and * How to navigate the financial services industry without getting your head handed to you. Finally, there's a chapter that summarizes everything, followed by a solid reading list for continuing your investment education, broken down by topic: theory, history, psychology, and business. Anyone wanting to reach a reasonable competence level in investing should read at least one of William Bernstein's books. This one or The Four Pillars of Investing  will suffice. Since he's not a Wall Street guy--he's...