I'd like to accomplish two things with this review of a book that, frankly, isn't worth a close read. First, I'll briefly point to the specific sections of the book readers can skim to extract most of the book's value--see the next paragraph for that part. Second, I want to use this book--which is the macroeconomic prediction equivalent of a man with a hammer--to expose the "expert prediction" game and illustrate how dangerous it is to credulously follow so-called expert predictions, especially when it comes to stock markets and economics. We'll start with what to skip and skim. A time-constrained reader can extract 99% of the value of the book by skimming parts 3 and 4 (pages 209-331) and studying the two charts on pages 330 and 331, which spell out all the dos and don'ts for surviving deflation. Readers might also consider reading Chapter 15 for its discussion of the Kondratieff wave concept, a useful mental model for thinking about cyclicality in a...
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